Real Talk | The Real Estate Podcast
Real Talk | The Real Estate Podcast
Capitalizing on Market Trends: Real Estate Investments and Mortgage Insights with Elan Weintraub
Unlock the mysteries of real estate and mortgage markets with Diana Victoria Quinn and special guest Elan Weintraub from Mortgage Outlet. Our in-depth conversation navigates the buzzing anticipation of mortgage rate changes and the golden opportunities blooming in today's market. Secure your financial future by learning why the present moment could be the ideal time to invest in property, as we analyze the signs pointing to an impending market upswing. Elan lends his expert insight on the international magnetism of cities like Toronto, shaping them into hotspots for savvy investors. Furthermore, we dissect the potential for adjustments in variable rate mortgages, promising a fascinating exploration for those poised to make a move in the housing landscape.
Continuing our journey, we shift gears to the strategies that can turbocharge a realtor's trajectory, even as the market braces for challenges ahead. Discover how to adapt and thrive, tailoring services to align with the evolving financial and lifestyle shifts of clients. Learn innovative techniques for cultivating lasting connections with past clients, boosting the chances of future transactions or referrals. We share the secret sauce to engaging these valuable networks, including hosting enlightening seminars that demystify market trends and investment possibilities. Our heartfelt thanks extend to Alain for his contributions and to you, our listeners, for joining the discourse. Stay plugged into TFN's real estate real talk by subscribing and participating in the dialogue on our social channels.
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When do you think rates will begin to change?
Speaker 2:You know there's really two questions. There Is when will they start to talk about rates changing and when will they actually change? I think by February, march they're definitely gonna start talking about rates coming down. I do think by the spring we'll see a little bit of rate decrease, kind of six, eight months from now. Maybe, in the fall there might be, if the economy doesn't rebound, there might be some severe rate drops.
Speaker 1:Hey everybody, this is Diana Victoria Quinn from TFN Realty and you're listening to the Real Talk Real Estate Podcast, the uncensored show that keeps it real for people who love real estate. We'll have some of the best interviews with some of our industry's most exciting people right now on a variety of different topics. We promise not to bore you. We have Ilan Weintraub from the mortgage.
Speaker 2:Outlet.
Speaker 1:Outlet from the mortgageleadca. Is that the or just?
Speaker 2:mortgage Mortgageleadca.
Speaker 1:With us today to talk about everything mortgages.
Speaker 2:Love it.
Speaker 1:And the market right now, and we actually just finished a seminar with our agents on. We talked a little bit about why it's a great time to buy right now. Look forward to 2024. Maybe we can start by getting to know a little bit more about you and how you got into mortgages.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's a good story. Well, it's a bit of a long story, but I used to work in the corporate world and when I worked in the corporate world I actually did a side gig as a real estate agent for a bit. And one of my closest friends, sean I basically he's an accountant and I said, sean, get your mortgage license and I'll just send you referrals. So I would send him a lot of mortgage referrals and, long story short, I got sick of the corporate world and then Sean and I got back together and started mortgage outlets. So we've been in business for coming on nine years. But I love that story because you know, we're high school friends and it really speaks, I think, to both of us to loyalty and trust and commitment and relationships. But I also love the fact that and to me this is partially what a great relationship is is I pushed him to go into the mortgage industry and lifted him up and then he lifted me up and that's kind of how things went and I just think it's a cool story.
Speaker 1:So that's a recipe for a perfect partnership, and so you've now been in the industry for nine years.
Speaker 2:You've seen it change quite a bit over the last nine years. Absolutely.
Speaker 1:And I do think we're at right now, and where do you think we're heading?
Speaker 2:Well, I'll talk about the real estate market first, and I actually think it's a really great opportunity to buy right now. Um, and I've been pretty cynical about the real estate market for for quite a while. Um, the reason I I think it could be a really good time right now is when I look to prices a year or two ago compared to where they are today, depending on what the you know geography is in the product, they could be down 10, 20% or more. So you know that detached or semi, that was a million might be 800,000. Now You're saving $200,000. Now, interest rates are a little bit higher and your monthly payment will be a little bit higher, but I think that's a short term issue. So, um, you know, when I rewind 6, 12, 18 months ago, there were 14 offers on properties and you were begging the seller to sell to you and you were bidding 300,000 over ask. Now you can actually negotiate a good, a good price.
Speaker 2:But the other thing I would overlay with that is the context. So, um, I talk a lot about how um cities are brands, and I really think Toronto is a brand, and when I think globally, um, you know whether you're from China or India or Africa or South America. Um, if you want to move your wealth away from some of those countries or diversify your wealth, you know Toronto. You can move here. They speak your language, they have your newspaper, they have your ethnic food, they have your festivals. Um, you can bring your parents. If you're middle age maybe your parents are 60, 70, 80 years old they can come here, they can speak their own language and it's just such a great global city. Um, I don't like the cliche of immigration because everyone talks about it a lot, but there is a lot of immigration coming to Canada and most of those people do not go to Sudbury or North Bay or Brandon, manitoba. They pretty much come to Toronto, vancouver and some Calgary.
Speaker 2:So when I think of you know, rates are a little bit higher now. I think there's some good news on the way there. But I think if you are planning to buy and hold it and it's not a short-term investment and you have a little bit of, you know, job stability and and a little bit of, um, a nest egg, I actually think it's a great time. I'll actually be very specific, which is I actually looked at a property, um to buy for myself as an investment a week ago, because I do think that in the new year uh, to build on the question rates are going to start to come down and when rates start to come down, the market could reignite. So buying now as in now, now, now, um, you're kind of beating that big herd that might be coming in the spring or maybe the summer, but I do think it's coming.
Speaker 1:And for us agents. Um, you know, when we're explaining this to our clients and they're paying a little bit more in terms of an interest rate but buying at a lower price, I know it's hard to say because there's all different types of products and mortgages out there, but how long would you say they would be paying that increased rate for?
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean it could be depending on what they do. If they do a variable rate, it could be within six months their payments start shrinking, or it could be if they take a two year or three year term. And again I like to be very clear about this I think that you know for the next if you take a three year term, your rates are going to be high for three years and maybe you're going to pay, you know, $20,000 more in interest than than what would have been ideal. But if you're saving a hundred or 200,000 on the purchase price and you're you know you're paying 20 or 30,000 too much in interest like that's a deal I would take any day of the week.
Speaker 1:And I think a lot of product out there is in that situation.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So in two, three years and even in six months, as if rates begin to drop, like you said, the market will reignite again and prices will go crazy.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So very interesting. Um, and when do you think rates will begin to change?
Speaker 2:So you know there's really two questions there is when will they start to talk about rates changing and when will they actually change? So I think by February, march, they're definitely going to start talking about rates coming down. Um, I don't know that they're going to kind of pull the cord and drop rates by 1% in the spring. But I do think by the spring we'll see a little bit of um uh rate decrease and I think it'll be a little bit of a slow and steady decline. And then, uh, kind of six, eight months from now, uh, maybe in the fall there might be, if the economy doesn't rebound, there might be some um, uh, some severe uh rate drops.
Speaker 2:And part of the problem is that the government is facing whether it's, uh, the federal regulator, um offsy, offsy, or the bank of Canada or all these you know um departments, is a lot of people have. You know maybe they got a five year fixed at 1.89%, 1.49%. All of a sudden now they're up for renewal at 6.19% and their payment is going from 2700 to, you know, 4100. That's not sustainable for Canadians and you know the government is aware of this. So they're dealing with these different tensions of people renewing into really high rates that they can't afford, versus fighting inflation, which also is critical for the economy.
Speaker 1:And do they have plans in place for people in this type of situation? Are they extending amortization periods?
Speaker 2:Um, well, in the short term, a lot of people um that took variable rates had their um amortize amortization extended. But, um, at renewal it really could be lender specific and it depends if you've gotten insured mortgage, meaning you put less than uh 20% down. Uh, because there are different rules. Some lenders might say you know what, you've overextended your am, we want the $30,000 back now. Or they might say we'll take that $30,000 and roll it into your mortgage. Or they might I think a lot of people are just going to completely uh break their mortgage at renewal and start from scratch.
Speaker 2:I think that's going to be a big trend and the reason why is let's just say you got a, a five year mortgage at you know, 1.89% and it's up for renewal. Well, your 25 year amortization is now 20 years. Well, if the rates are going from under 2% to 6% and you've got a 20 year am, your payment is going to skyrocket. Those people are most likely going to refinance and re extend their am to 25 and even potentially 30 years to counteract the higher interest rates that they're facing today.
Speaker 1:So what would your advice be to those who are up for renewal spring of next year?
Speaker 2:Um well, my advice is always go to your lender and find out what the offer is and what the best offer is and what the lender recommends. Always start with your existing lender, but never do anything without talking to another provider uh, generally a mortgage, uh, mortgage broker who can give you a little bit more of a broader opinion, because if your mortgage is with RBC and you're up for renewal, they're only going to tell you what RBC can offer. They're not going to tell you that Scotiah can offer you this, or HSBC can offer you that, or national bank can offer you this, and, and it could be a big deal. The other thing is, for a lot of people, um, straight renewal is too. It's too, um, narrow. Maybe you have a credit card that, maybe your kids are going to university, maybe you're buying a cottage, maybe you want to renovate. So just to simply renew and move on, unless your life is incredibly stable, um, it's generally not a good idea. And always get a second opinion from uh, uh, you know, a source that can provide multiple solutions.
Speaker 1:And, um, if I know it's come up a couple of times in our office with clients. Can they go to if they're working with, let's say, bmo? On their renewal? Can they go and get a second opinion while they're in the midst of working?
Speaker 2:out Absolutely so there's no, they're not committed or I mean, be careful what you sign. But generally speaking you're not committed, especially with, like a bank or you know kind of a well-known lender. If it's a private lender, uh you have to be careful because they can have some uh sneaky fine print in there. But generally speaking, you're, you're good.
Speaker 1:What can agents do now to?
Speaker 2:prepare for 2024?.
Speaker 2:As realtors. A lot of a lot of realtors feel that the market is slow. Um, if you look at the stats, especially the last few months of the year September, october, november, december um, kind of the last four years, transaction volume is down 50%. Like that's a huge number. Like the number of transactions is cut in half. Now, if you think about most businesses McDonald's, walmart, nike, whatever it is Apple for their sales to go down by 50% would be insane. But as realtors, the market has shrunk by 50%. So I think the first thing is to acknowledge it. Now, I'm a big believer in mindset and planning and you can be a victim and be like oh yeah, the market sucks and transaction volume is down 50%. The way I articulate it is if you're an industry giant like RBC or like Walmart or like Apple, you will move largely with the economy. That's just because you're so big. But if you're a realtor working by themselves or maybe on a small team, you have the potential to grow and even double. So I'm not a fan of like excuses and yeah, the market is shrunk. I'm a fan of acknowledging it.
Speaker 2:But then it's about taking action and what can I do to build my business? And I think there's a lot of things that realtors can and should do and, frankly, they don't do. A lot of realtors they wait for their phone to ring. One of the metrics I use is how often is my phone ringing? And a lot of realtors they stare at the phone and it's like it's not ringing. Well, how do you go out and make it ring? So first of all again and we talked about this a little bit the concept of payment shock. So a lot of people, their mortgage payments are either they have skyrocketed or they're about to skyrocket. Canadians are massively stressed about their mortgages.
Speaker 2:Now, the other context I'll overlay is a lot of realtors are terrible at staying in touch with their past clients. So I sell you a home three years ago, Thank you great, everything is amazing. And then I haven't spoken with you for three years. So it is connecting, and we do know this connecting with past clients. Past clients are 10 times more likely to transact with you. Again, past clients are 10 times more likely to send you a referral. But it's awkward, let's be honest, it's awkward. I call you up. I haven't spoken with you in three years. Hey, so it's been three years, but do you know anyone that's selling their house. That's very awkward, but to me, the conversation is you know what? I know? It's a really stressful time right now.
Speaker 2:I've been hearing from a lot of my clients and I wanted to reach out. I know we haven't spoken in a while acknowledge it but if you have any questions about rising rates, rising payments, we do have solutions. I work with some great mortgage brokers and start that conversation that way, but it is about reaching out to those clients. The other thing I would overlay there is a lot of people. Their needs are changing right. Maybe they need to up size, maybe they need to downsize, maybe their kids are going away to university, you know, oh, my son is going to U of T. Well, maybe it's a great time to buy them a condo and get them a roommate and all of a sudden, you're building up some wealth in that way. So it's a great reason to reach out to people that you haven't spoken with in the past.
Speaker 2:Now, one of the things that I'm doing is, you know, encouraging those realtors to do what I call VIP seminars or exclusive seminars, where you're contacting past clients and you're inviting them. I'm not posting this on social media, it's only for my past clients and we're going to talk about all these trends, these, you know, payment shock, different solutions and then different themes like upsizing, downsizing, buying a rental property, buying a cottage. So I do think it's a matter of reconnecting with people. You know I call it going out for a coffee, have a coffee with them, reconnect. But again, I am a big fan of these. You know person in in-person, you know VIP seminars, past client seminars, whether it's at your brokerage, whether you do on your own. The other one that that I'm pretty excited about is a lot of realtors do first-time buyer seminars, but I'm a big fan of putting a little bit of a different spin on it, which is first-time buyer seminars but inviting the parents.
Speaker 1:I love this one.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So we all talk about the bank of mom and dad. What a lot of people don't realize is it's not just the bank of mom and dad, it's also mom and dad cosigning on the mortgage. Well, guess what? If they're writing a big check or they're cosigning, they're going to have a lot of questions. Why not differentiate yourself, because there are a lot of realtors out there. But make it for you know first-time buyers and we want moms and dads to attend. All of a sudden. Now you might even get some moms and dads attending and the kids don't, but you've established that relationship and now you have a connection and building your pipeline for the following year. So I do think it's about re-engaging people and taking a lot of action. It's not a matter of waiting for your phone to ring.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I think you brought up a couple great points. You know, especially because of COVID, we've become lazy. We don't want to interact over the phone. It's so much easier to send a WhatsApp or send a text message and it's difficult for us to you know, we talked about calling and inviting somebody out for coffee and like actually meeting them in person and sharing a meal or sharing a cup of coffee together.
Speaker 1:It's like so taboo. It's like you really want to have a coffee with me and sit down and discuss. But it's so important that we do that and connect face to face and I love the idea of the seminars.
Speaker 2:I just actually just on that. I love to use this dating analogy that you know if you meet a girl on Bumble or Tinder or whatever it is, you don't get married that evening. Right, you do some texting and then maybe you date in real life, hopefully. And then you know, you connect and get married. It's not just like match on Tinder, like married the next night. And there is an element of that, especially with past clients of like. You know you talk on the phone but then meeting with them face to face, just talking about them, you know, reconnecting with them about family and just showing a genuine interest, is really important.
Speaker 1:Now I know you've been a great support to our agents at TFN and we have a lot of agent viewers and listeners for those who you know have a healthy database, have a healthy group of past clients and want to host some of these, one of these seminars. But they don't want to do it alone. They don't have the confidence yet to do it or they don't know where to start. Could they reach out to you and connect with you, and maybe it's some sort of partnership that you guys create?
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, as you know, I love talking about mortgages, I love helping people, so absolutely. And we've done these seminars. You know, I'm working on one in January with a realtor and she's hosting people in her home, which I love because it is so personal and genuine and it's not. You know, listen, of course there's condo party rooms and there's different venues, but she's doing it in your home and, again, I haven't spoken with you in three years. I wanted to personally invite you into my home. We're going to be talking about there's a lot of stress, there's going to be some wine and cheese, so I love that concept. But even again, at your brokerage, do you know, 7pm on a Tuesday, mom, dad and first time buyers, and whether you get your broker manager involved or you do it on your own, but I'm not shy to talk about mortgages and you know I love working with realtors. I actually speak at the Toronto Real Estate Board and many other real estate boards. So, but I do think you know again, like you said, whether realtors are lazy or they didn't need to work as hard a couple years ago because their phone was ringing off the hook, and this is why, to me, I always start with that context, that transaction volume is down 50%. Now it's not as easy as oh, my phone is blowing up, I don't even have time to think about it. It is time to go back into your past client list, your database, your CRM, and don't get intimidated by that.
Speaker 2:Some people are like, oh my God, I don't know where to start. It's just you know what ask your broker manager for all of your you know trades that you've ever done. Now you have a list and start ABCDE like pick a date, pick your mortgage partner, pick your venue, and now you've got it. But you really have to go out and you know there's this term in business. It's, you know, create value or share value. I actually don't like that. I find it's very cheesy. You want to help people. You want to, you know.
Speaker 2:One of the things we talked about is how the media is scaring people and all this crazy stuff. But everything the media says, I look, I kind of flip upside down. I'm a big fan of the Warren Buffett quote be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. 6, 12, 18 months ago 14 offers, 300,000 over ask. Now buyers are really, really scared. What an amazing time to buy. What an amazing time to negotiate.
Speaker 2:Again, as long as you have stability in your job, stability in your income and you plan on being there for a while, the market might go down a little bit more, but ultimately, with a longer term time horizon, I think that on a personal level, but also just based on kind of where we are, I think that prices will increase. In addition, new construction is very slow right now. A lot of builders are canceling projects because the cost of building and the cost of borrowing to build is so high. So all of this supply of new inventory, new construction, it's all being placed on hold. So again, there's a lot of pressure on the supply side of things.
Speaker 1:That's amazing, great insight, great advice. Thank you, and we'll definitely share your contact as well. So we can put it out there to our agents and other agents as well. I loved what you said about the agent inviting her clients into her home. My parents are actually both realtors. Yeah, my parents. Their office was essentially our dining room table and we constantly had clients.
Speaker 1:Like my parents would say, oh, this client's coming over for dinner and that client and they're an extension of our family. They became their best friends, their family, and my father always said they invite us into their home. We need to invite them into our home, and that's how you form relationships. And their clients stayed with them for 20, 30, 40 years and now they're selling to their kids and their grandchildren, which is pretty amazing. So I love that.
Speaker 2:And again, it's just, it's very personal. I know that for many reasons some people can't do it or they don't want to do it. But I just love that that little spin on it. I thought, you know, when the realtor kind of said, let's do it in my house and I was like, oh my God, this is amazing.
Speaker 1:But we can take that element into things that we do. You know, we're in this area where we're on Instagram filters and face apps, which I use by the way. But you know, we modify the way that we look because we want to present ourselves to be somebody else on social media. But we have to strip that all the way. Go back to the basics. Call your clients, call your friends, meet them in person, share a meal, invite them into your home. We forgot how to do that, and I think it makes a big difference.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, I'm still using Zoom a lot, but I'm also really sick of Zoom, so I yeah. I like to meet people in person. Well, it's tough with Zoom, like if everyone has their camera on. I think it's easier to connect, but so many people are still afraid of that. Yeah.
Speaker 1:And so you're just sort of talking to this black screen and yeah, it's not as engaging.
Speaker 2:I need to look at myself, so I try to put my camera on like as the main one, so at least I'm talking to myself.
Speaker 1:Yeah, Even that's a little bizarre. This is great. Thank you, Alain, for coming on Again. If anyone has any questions or wants to get a hold of Yilan, we will post the information on our social channels and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Great Thanks so much.
Speaker 1:Thank you so much for listening. Thank you to our guests and our editor. We hope that you enjoyed this new episode and, if you did, please subscribe and leave a rating and a review. Our goal is to continue to provide you with interesting content and exciting topics, to stay up to date with TFN's real estate real talk and to get all the behind the scenes content. You can follow us on Instagram at TFN Realty Inc, and on YouTube.